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Tuesday, October 14, 2008

The economy and positive spins

The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.
-- John Kenneth Galbraith
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Saw this quote and it just made so much sense.
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When I was working on my MBA and we had to take several finance classes, the one student was trying to get the professor to answer some of her very pointed questions. She wanted him to explain to her how she could plan her savings, investment and lifestyle strategy so that she could retire at age 50.
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His response was that the only way that anyway could guarantee that is if the stars and the moon align correctly in the sky . . . and all things remain aligned forever . . . in other words, there aren't any guarantees.
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I have consistently put money in my 401k since we were allowed to do so, probably 25 years now. I would never, ever have been able to save the kind of money I have saved. I generally ignore it. Unfortunately, in order to be eligible for scholarships at my daughter's school, you have to complete a PSAS (Private School Aid Service) form. One of the questions you have to answer is how much you currently have in your savings, including 401k. Bah humbug. It is down by 26% . . . now, since I have been investing for 25 years, I still have a rather nice nest egg, it is just down by a lot . . . a really big lot. On the other hand, I'm not planning on retiring for another ten years and in light of this economy, a good thing!
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So, in trying to keep a positive spin on things:
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  • It is good to see that gas prices have dropped so much (I paid $2.73/gallon on Sunday; Dave paid $2.63)
  • I still have enough in my 401k that, if it became necessary, I could pay off my house and still have money left over
  • We are all healthy
  • The kids are doing well in school
  • Sarah is in love and Kyle is a great guy with a good head on his shoulders.
  • We are eating out of our freezer (a good thing which we do every fall and saves a boatload of money)
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I hope everyone is holding their own.

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